Getting Warmer... Iran and Israel Tensions Inch Closer to Hot Attacks
People climb on the debris of an Iranian missile intercepted by Israel, near Arad, southern Israel, Oct. 2, 2024. Photo: AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg
Tensions between Israel and Iran finally reached a tipping point on Tuesday Oct. 1, when the latter initiated a missile attack into Israeli territory. There has only been one confirmed death and a handful of minor injuries reported.
The attack came as a response by Iran for the assassination of Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon during the recent aerial and ground offensive by Israel into the territory of their northern neighbors. Hezbollah, a Shi’ite militant group based out of Lebanon but involved in conflicts across the Levant, has been generously supported by Iran for many years and can be considered an extension of the Islamic Republic’s Shi’ite influence. The Israeli offensive has left many dead and thousands displaced in the days before the attack.
IDF ministers reported that the fallout of the attack was limited to architectural and structural damage, and that despite many military bases experiencing external destruction, the equipment internally remains operational. According to Iranian state media, the primary target was Israeli military bases; though, there were no precautions taken to prevent damage to civilian infrastructure, such as at this Gedera school where a classroom was demolished in the attack (video sourced from the BBC). Though no one was injured because of blasts directly, there have been two reported minor injuries and one death as a result of falling shrapnel; the man, a Palestinian living in the West Bank near Jericho, was identified as 38-year old Sameh Khadr Hassan Al-Asali. He was buried on Wednesday Oct. 2 in a procession displaying Palestinian flags.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan confirmed that the attack consisted of 180 ballistic missiles; according to Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, “‘You don't launch that many missiles at a target without the intent of hitting something’.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III “reaffirmed the United States ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel” and emphasized the effectiveness of the US’s vast defense network in the region.
A visualization of the alliances and political priorities of regional players. Lebanon and Israel (including the Palestinian territories) have been enlarged for visibility. Graph: Economist Intelligence
The way in which the response to the attack is handled will likely have heavy consequences on the delicate politics of the region. As it is, a complex system of alliances, rooted in both material and ideological ties, holds a fragile balance of power between regional players.
At this point, the US has already begun communications with their MENA allies to extract any vulnerable points in the region that could lead to further escalation of violence. Considering this attack was a retaliation in and of itself, further fire could lead to an endless back-and-forth that devastates the region.
With every “hot” escalation between Iran and Israel, the US has repeatedly urged Israel to minimize any retaliations; with this one, President Biden urged Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the win” and exercise restraint in returning the fire back at Iranian territory.
From the perspective of the United States, this short term restraint is a necessary step towards reducing overall violence between these ideological foes; however, it is a band-aid on the ultimate wound that these tensions are casting upon the region. While there is no clear path to deescalation, to overlook the third parties that have yet to align with either bloc is to open the door to malicious actors roping more and more innocent populations that only want to live without the fear of missiles raining down on them.