What Brazil’s Election Could Mean for Environmental Cooperation
Brazilian presidential election candidates take the stage for a debate in Sep. 2022. Photo: Ricardo Moraes / Reuters
Brazilian citizens took to the polls on Oct. 2 to vote for a president, but as no candidate earned more than 50 percent of the vote, the election will have a run-off in late October. Former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva finished the first round with 48.4 percent of the vote, while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro earned 43.2 percent of the vote.
Environmental experts say that the election is crucial to the future of the Amazon Rainforest, and subsequently to the future of planetary climate change. Under President Bolsonaro’s leadership, vast swaths of the Amazon were deforested, and experts predict that this trend will continue if Bolsonaro retains his position. In sharp contrast to predictions under a second Bolsonaro term, experts say that under Lula, deforestation of the Amazon could fall by up to 90 percent.
Bolsonaro’s presidency marked a low point for both the Amazon and for environmental cooperation in Brazil. Deforestation in the Amazon reached record levels, as Bolsonaro’s administration hampered environmental regulations, slashed the environmental protection budget, and replaced environmental policy makers with military officers. In 2019, Bolsonaro rejected millions of dollars in aid to fight fires in the Amazon after suggesting that the aid was intended to strip Brazil of sovereignty over the Amazon. Bolsonaro’s refusal of aid and general lack of cooperation fall in line with right wing isolationist trends during his presidency.
Bolsonaro also went on record to deny reports of Amazon deforestation, calling the data “a lie” that was created “at the service of some [nongovernmental organization].” Brazilian scientists rejected Bolsonaro’s statements, who has since relented on his rhetoric.
Lula, who finished with the highest vote share in the first round of the election, has a markedly different approach to environmental policy. Every Brazilian presidential candidate was invited to the Brazilian Academy of Sciences to discuss science and sustainable development, but only Lula attended. During Lula’s presidency, from 2003 to 2010, deforestation in the Amazon was greatly reduced and science investment increased greatly. Lula now runs on a platform of international environmental cooperation, with specific focus on protecting indigenous peoples and land in the Amazon.
However, Lula remains a controversial figure in Brazilian politics. He was released from prison in Nov. 2019 after 580 days in prison for charges of corruption and money laundering. Lula was sentenced to 12 years on corruption charges the previous April, and his sentence was overturned following improper appeal procedures. A questionable judge, Sergio Moro delivered the original sentence and was revealed to have bribed prosecutors during the original trial. Moro was later appointed as the Minister of Justice and Public Safety of Brazil by Bolsonaro.
Forest fires burn in the Amazon. Photo: Nimar Large / Greenpeace
Brazilian environmentalists sided with Lula over Bolsonaro, including former environment minister Marina Silva. Silva has expressed potential interest in returning to her former role in an attempt to cut deforestation down to zero and aid Lula’s attempts at creating a coalition of tropical rainforest nations in United Nations climate talks.